The Damage to an Ecosystem Caused by a Hurricane or Flood Can Be Referred to as
Affiliate 12 - HURRICANE HAZARDS
A. HURRICANE: THE PHENOMENON
B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND Affect ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT
C. RISK ASSESSMENT AND DISASTER MITIGATION
D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN Modest TOWNS AND VILLAGES
REFERENCES
SUMMARY
This chapter describes the nature of hurricanes and their destructive adequacy. It outlines measures that tin be taken to reduce the touch of a hurricane and, in particular, identifies appropriate mitigation measures for small towns and villages.
The devastation caused by hurricanes in the Caribbean and Primal America is a force that has shaped history and will shape the hereafter of the region. The danger arises from a combination of factors that narrate tropical cyclonic storms: rising in sea level, violent winds, and heavy rainfall. In the Greater Caribbean Bowl from 1960 through 1988 (excluding the United States and U.S. territories) hurricanes caused more than twenty,000 deaths, afflicted 6 one thousand thousand people, and destroyed belongings worth over U.s.$9.five billion (OFDA, 1989). The great bulk of this impairment was done to the Caribbean island countries, whose small-scale economies are least able to withstand such impacts.
Data on hurricane harm have been collected since the discovery of the Americas, and recent statistics show that mitigation measures have made a difference since the 1930s. While the ferocity of the storms has not abated over the years, and population has increased substantially in the area, the casualty rate has decreased as a upshot of the incorporation of mitigation measures and the increased effectiveness of preparedness activities. This improvement in saving lives has been countered by a marked increase in property impairment. This is a clear indicator that structural mitigation measures are not keeping pace with the rapid increment in development in vulnerable areas.
A important characteristic of this chapter is its detailed discussion of hurricane hazard mitigation in pocket-size towns and villages. In this setting, largely beyond the reach of national mitigation activities, simple strategies are both essential and highly constructive.
A. HURRICANE: THE PHENOMENON
1. HURRICANE Development
ii. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN
iii. HAZARDOUS CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES
"Tropical cyclone" is the scientific term for a closed meteorological apportionment that develops over tropical waters. These large-calibration not-frontal low-pressure systems occur throughout the world over zones referred to equally "tropical cyclone basins" (NOAA, 1987). The proper noun for them varies: in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific they are called "hurricanes" later the Mayan discussion for devil, in the northwest Pacific "typhoons," and in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean simply "cyclones." Of all tropical cyclone occurrences, 75 percent develop in the northern hemisphere, and of these, just ane out of iii are hurricanes in the northeast Pacific or northwest Atlantic (UNDRO, 1978). The storms of the northern hemisphere travel w; those of the southern hemisphere move east.
In the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin, which includes the Atlantic Sea, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes originate more often than not in the northern Atlantic and to a bottom degree in the Caribbean. The areas well-nigh at risk are the Caribbean isle countries due north of Trinidad (73 strikes by major hurricanes between 1900 and 1988), Mexico and the southeastern United States, Central America north of Panama, and to a limited extent the northern declension of S America (Tomblin, 1979). Hurricanes also originate in the northeast Pacific, where they can affect the w coast of Mexico. Most of South America is essentially at no risk, because the tropical southwestern Atlantic and the southeastern Pacific are devoid of these meteorological occurrences, but systems originating on the west coast of Africa can potentially strike the northernmost part of the continent; for example, in 1988 Hurricane Joan formed on the northwestern coast of Africa and struck the coast of Venezuela and Colombia before hitting eastern Nicaragua. Effigy 12-1 shows the paths of the hurricanes originating in the Atlantic, the Pacific, and the Caribbean.
1. HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT
a. Birth: Tropical Depression
b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane
c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation
All of the embryonic tropical depressions that develop into hurricanes originate in like meteorological conditions and exhibit the same life bike. The distinct stages of hurricane development are divers by the "sustained velocity" of the organization's winds-the wind velocity readings maintained for at least one minute near the eye of the System. In the formative stages of a hurricane, the airtight isobaric circulation is chosen a tropical depression. If the sustained velocity of the winds exceeds 63km/h (39 mph), it becomes a tropical storm. At this stage it is given a name and is considered a threat. When the winds exceed 119km/h (74 mph), the system becomes a hurricane, the most astringent form of tropical storm. Decay occurs when the storm moves into nontropical waters or strikes a landmass. If it travels into a nontropical environment it is called a subtropical storm and subtropical depression; if landfall occurs. the winds decelerate and information technology becomes again a tropical storm and depression. Figure 12-2 summarizes this classification.
Figure 12-1 - OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORMS AND CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE 1/
1/ Wind force of Beaufort 8 and aboveSource: Munchener Ruck. Mapa Mundial de los Riesgos de la Naturaleza. (Munich, Federal Commonwealth of Germany, Munchener Ruckversicherungs: 1988)
a. Nascence: Tropical Low
Hurricanes are generated at latitudes of eight to 15 degrees north and south of the Equator every bit a result of the normal release of heat and moisture on the surface of tropical oceans. They aid maintain the atmospheric heat and moisture residual between tropical and non-tropical areas. If they did not exist, the equatorial oceans would accumulate estrus continuously (Landsberg, 1960).
Hurricane formation requires a sea surface temperature of at least 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit). In the summer months, the ocean temperatures in the Caribbean and Atlantic can achieve 29 degrees (84 degrees), making them prime locations for inception. The surface h2o warms the air, which rises and then is blocked by warmer air coming from the easterly winds. The coming together of these two air masses creates an atmospheric inversion. At this stage, thunderstorms develop and the inversion may be broken, effectively lowering the atmospheric pressure.
b. Growth: Tropical Storm and Hurricane
The growth of the system occurs when pressure level in the center of the tempest drops well below 1000 millibars (mb) while the outer boundary pressure remains normal. When pressure drops, the trade winds are propelled in a spiral design by the earth'south rotation. The strong torque forces created by the discrepancy in pressure generate wind velocities proportional to gradient of pressure. As the free energy level increases, the air apportionment design is inward towards the low force per unit area center and upward, in a counter-clockwise spiral in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. The cycle perpetuates itself and the organized storm begins a translational move with velocities of around 32 km/h during formation and upward to 90km/h during the extra-tropical life.
The zone of highest atmospheric precipitation, about vehement winds, and rise ocean level is next to the outer wall of the "middle." The direction of the winds, however, is not towards the heart just is tangent to the center wall about 50km from the geometric heart (Mathur, 1987). The organized walls of clouds are equanimous of adjoining bands which can typically reach a full bore of 450km (Earthscan No. 34-a, 1983). The central heart, dissimilar the rest of the storm, is characterized as an area of relatively low wind speeds and no cloud comprehend with an boilerplate diameter of 50-80km and a vertical circulation of up to 15km.
Hurricane nomenclature is based on the intensity of the storm, which reflects damage potential. The most ordinarily used categorization method is the 1 developed by H. Saffir and R.H. Simpson (Figure 12-3). The determination of a category level depends mostly on barometric pressure and sustained wind velocities. Levels of storm surge fluctuate greatly due to atmospheric and bathymetric weather. Thus, the expected storm surge levels are general estimates of a typical hurricane occurrence.
Effigy 12-2 CLASSIFICATION OF HURRICANE Evolution
| ENVIRONMENT | Development | CRITERIA |
| Tropical | Depression | max sustained winds < or = 63 km/h (39 miles/h) |
| Tropical Tempest | 63 km/h < sustained winds < 119 km/h (74 miles/h) | |
| Hurricane | sustained winds > or = 119km/h (74 miles/h) | |
| Tropical Depression (dissipation) | max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h) | |
| Nontropical | Subtropical Storm (dissipation) | 63km/h < sustained winds < 119km/h (74 miles/h) |
| Subtropical Depression (dissipation) | max sustained winds < or = 63km/h (39 miles/h) |
Source: Adapted from Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the Northward Atlantic Body of water, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).
Figure 12-3 SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE Calibration (SSH)
| Hurricane Category Number | Sustained Winds | Atmospheric Pressure in the Eye (millibars) | Storm | Surge | Damage | |
| (km/h) | (miles/h) | (meters) | (anxiety) | Level | ||
| i | 119 - 153 | 74 - 95 | 980 | ane.ii - 1.5 | four.0 - 4.9 | Depression |
| 2 | 154 - 177 | 96 - 110 | 965 - 979 | 1.8 - 2.4 | 5.9 - 7.9 | Moderate |
| three | 179 - 209 | 111 - 130 | 945 - 964 | 2.7 - iii.7 | 8.9 - 12.2 | All-encompassing |
| 4 | 211 - 249 | 131 - 155 | 920 - 944 | 4.0 - 5.five | thirteen.0 - 18.0 | Farthermost |
| five | > 249 | > 155 | < 920 | > five.five | > 18.0 | Catastrophic |
Source: Adapted from Oliver, J., and Fairbridge, R. The Encyclopedia of Climatology (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Co., Inc., 1987).
c. Death: Landfall or Dissipation
Typically, a hurricane eventually dissipates over colder waters or country about ten days later on the genesis of the system. If it travels into a non-tropical environment, it loses its free energy source and falls into the dominant weather pattern it encounters. If, on the other hand, it hits land, the loss of energy in combination with the increased roughness of the terrain volition cause information technology to dissipate rapidly (Frank, 1984). When information technology reaches country in populated areas, information technology becomes ane of the near devastating of all natural phenomena.
ii. TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF HURRICANE OCCURRENCE IN THE Caribbean area
The official hurricane flavour in the Greater Caribbean region begins the offset of June and lasts through November 30, with 84 percent of all hurricanes occurring during August and September (Frank, 1984). Figure 12-4 shows the seasonal grapheme of hurricanes. The greatest gamble in United mexican states and the western Caribbean is at the showtime and end of the season, and in the eastern Caribbean during mid-flavour.
Every year over 100 tropical depressions or potential hurricanes are monitored, but an average of simply ten attain tropical storm force and six become hurricanes. These overall averages suggest that activity is compatible from yr to yr just historical records signal a loftier degree of variance, with long periods of serenity and activity (Figure 12-5). The Atlantic bowl has the widest seasonal variability. In 1907, for case, not a single tropical storm reached hurricane intensity, while in 1969, there were 12 hurricanes in the northern Atlantic (NOAA, 1987).
Because the cycles vary in periodicity and duration, prediction is difficult. Contempo forecasting developments, connecting hurricane action levels with El Niño and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation have made it possible to predict the variance in Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with an accuracy of 40 to 50 percent (American Meteorological Lodge, 1988), but this degree of accuracy, while considered high by meteorological standards, is non good plenty for planners trying to develop advisable emergency response systems. There is no dubiety that the quality of forecasting will continue to improve, merely until that happens planners must rely on historical information to summate the probability of occurrence in a given twelvemonth. Simpson and Lawrence in 1971 used historical data to brand these calculations for the entire east declension of the The states and Gulf of Mexico coast, using 80km (50 miles) segments (ESCAP/WMO, 1977).
iii. HAZARDOUS CHARACTERISTICS OF HURRICANES
a. Winds
b. Rainfall
c. Tempest Surge
a. Winds
Hurricane wind speeds can attain up to 250km/h (155mph) in the wall of the hurricane, and gusts can exceed 360km/h (224mph).The subversive power of current of air increases with the square of its speed. Thus, a tripling of wind speed increases subversive ability past a gene of nine. Topography plays an important part: wind speed is decreased at low elevations by physical obstacles and in sheltered areas, while it is increased over exposed hill crests (Davenport, 1985; see Effigy 12-half dozen). Another correspondent to destruction is the upward vertical force that accompanies hurricanes; the college the vertical extension of a hurricane, the greater the vertical pulling consequence.
Devastation is acquired either by the direct impact of the air current or past flying debris. The current of air itself primarily damages agricultural crops. Unabridged forests have been flattened past forces that pulled the tree roots from the earth. Man-fabricated stock-still structures are too vulnerable. Tall buildings tin can shake or even collapse. The desperate barometric force per unit area differences in a hurricane can make well-enclosed structures explode and the suction can elevator up roofs and entire buildings. But well-nigh of the devastation, death, and injury past wind is due to flying droppings (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979), the touch on forcefulness of which is straight related to its mass and the square of its velocity. The impairment caused by a flying car to whatsoever it strikes will exist greater than if the wind had acted lonely. Improperly attached roof sheets or tiles are the most common projectiles. Other frequent objects are antennas, telephone poles, copse, and discrete building parts.
Figure 12-4 - NUMBER OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES (open bar) AND HURRICANES (solid bar) OBSERVED ON EACH Day, MAY ane-DECEMBER 31, 1886 THROUGH 1986, IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC Ocean
Source: Neumann, C.J. et al. Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Sea, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce, NOM, 1987).
Effigy 12-five - Annual DISTRIBUTION OF THE 845 RECORDED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE N ATLANTIC REACHING AT Least TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (open up bar) AND THE 496 REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH (solid bar), 1886 THROUGH 1986
Note: The average number of such storms is 8.4 and four.9 respectively.Source: Neumann, C.J. et al Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Body of water, 1871-1986 (Washington, D.C.: U.Southward. Department of Commerce, NOAA, 1987).
Effigy 12-vi ISLAND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ON Mean SURFACE Current of air SPEEDS
Source: Davenport, A.G. Georgiou, P.K., and Surry, D. A Hurricane Wind Hazard Study for the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica and Belize with Special Consideration to the Influence of Topography. (London, Ontario, Canada: Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory, The University of Western Ontario, 1985).
Building standards to withstand high wind velocities are prescribed in virtually all countries that face a high risk. The codes recommend that structures maintain a certain level of forcefulness in order to withstand the local average wind velocity force per unit area, calculated by averaging wind pressure over a period of ten minutes for the highest expected wind speed in l years. The Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBIC) under consideration past the Caribbean countries, prescribes the reference wind velocity pressure for each land. Effigy 12-vii shows the relationship between wind speed, expressed in the codes in terms of meters per second rather than kilometers or miles per hour, and general belongings impairment. Annotation the correlation betwixt this and the SSH calibration in Figure 12-three.
b. Rainfall
The rains that accompany hurricanes are extremely variable and hard to predict (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). They can exist heavy and last several days or can dissipate in hours. The local topography, humidity, and the frontwards speed of a hurricane in the incidence of precipitation are recognized every bit important, but attempts to make up one's mind the direct connectedness take so far proved futile.
Intense rainfall causes two types of destruction. The offset is from seepage of water into buildings causing structural damage; if the rain is steady and persistent, structures may just collapse from the weight of the absorbed h2o. The second, more widespread and common and much more dissentious, is from inland flooding, which puts at take a chance all valleys along with their structures and disquisitional transportation facilities, such as roads and bridges. Affiliate 8 describes flooding in more particular.
Landslides, as secondary hazards, are often triggered by heavy precipitation. Areas with medium to steep slopes become oversaturated and failure occurs along the weakest zones. Thus, depression-lying valley areas are not the only sites vulnerable to precipitation. Chapter x is devoted to this miracle.
c. Tempest Surge
A storm surge is a temporary rise in sea level acquired by the water being driven over land primarily by the on-shore hurricane force winds and only secondarily past the reduction in sea-level barometric pressure between the centre of the storm and the outer region. A rough human relationship between atmospheric pressure and the tempest surge level was shown in Figure 12-three. Another estimate is that for every drib of 100 millibars (mb) in barometric pressure level, a 1m (3.28 anxiety) ascension in water level is expected. The magnitude of the surge at a specific site is also a function of the radius of the maximum hurricane winds, the speed of the system's arroyo, and the foreshore bathymetry. It is hither that the difficulty arises in predicting storm surge levels. Historical records betoken that the increase in mean body of water level can be negligible or tin be as much equally 7.5 meters (24.6 feet) (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). The most vulnerable coastal zones are those with the highest historical frequencies of landfalls. Regardless of its height, the great dome of water is oftentimes 150km (93 miles) broad and moves toward the coastline where the hurricane eye makes landfall.
Effigy 12-7 Human relationship Betwixt WIND SPEED AND GENERAL Property Impairment
| Wind Speed | Damage |
| 22-35m/sec | pocket-sized |
| 36-45 m/sec | intermediate (loss of windows) |
| >45m/sec | structural |
Source: ECLAC/UNEP. Natural Disasters Overview. Meeting of Government-Nominated Experts to Review the Draft Activeness Program for the Wider Caribbean Region, Caracas, Venezuela, 28 Jan - 1 February (Caracas: ECLAC/UNEP, 1979).
Storm surges nowadays the greatest threat to coastal communities. Xc percentage of hurricane fatalities are due to drowning caused by a storm surge. Severe flooding from a storm surge affects low-lying areas up to several kilometers inland. The height of the surge can be greater if man-fabricated structures in bays and estuaries tuck h2o flow and compound the flooding. If heavy rain accompanies storm surge and the hurricane landfall occurs at a peak high tide, the consequences can exist catastrophic. The excess water from the heavy rains inland creates fluvial flooding, and the simultaneous increase in sea level blocks the seaward flow of rivers, leaving nowhere for the water to go.
B. HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT ON THE AMERICAS: HURRICANE GILBERT
1. JAMAICA
two. Mexico
Hurricanes are by far the most frequent hazardous phenomena in the Caribbean area. Tomblin (1981) states that in the last 250 years the Due west Indies has been devastated by three volcanic eruptions, 8 earthquakes, and 21 major hurricanes. If tropical storms are also taken into business relationship, the Greater Caribbean has suffered from hundreds of such events.
The economical and social consequences of this miracle are astringent, especially in less adult countries, where a pregnant percentage of the GDP can be destroyed by a unmarried event. Figure 12-8 lists the major hurricanes and tropical storms in the Americas and the damage they caused.
Without a comprehensive listing of costs and casualties, the economic and social disruption caused by a disastrous event is hard to grasp. It is not the purpose of this affiliate to provide all this information, which can exist constitute in the dandy volume of literature on individual events. But a brief review of how one hurricane afflicted various sectors in United mexican states and Jamaica volition help planners to sympathize the complexities of the turmoil that such a natural upshot can cause.
Hurricane Gilbert struck the Caribbean and the Gulf Coast of Mexico in 1988, causing comprehensive impairment in Mexico, Jamaica, Haiti, Guatemala, Honduras, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Costa rica, and Nicaragua. Arriving in Saint Lucia as a tropical low, information technology resulted in impairment estimated at Us$2.5 1000000 from the flooding and landslides caused by the heavy rain (Caribbean Disaster News No.xv/sixteen,1988).
The concrete variations in this hurricane resulted in different types of damage. Information technology was considered a "dry out" hurricane when information technology struck Jamaica, discharging less precipitation than would exist expected. Thus, most of the harm was due to air current force which blew away roofs. Past the time information technology approached United mexican states, however, it was accompanied by torrential rains, which acquired massive flooding far inland.
Hurricane Gilbert began as a tropical wave on September 3, 1988, on the due north coast of Africa. Six days later, the system was across the Atlantic and had evolved into Gilbert as a tropical tempest. It struck Jamaica on September 12 equally a Category 3 (SSH Scale) hurricane and traveled w over the entire length of the island. Gaining forcefulness as information technology moved northwest, it striking the Yucatan Peninsula, in United mexican states, on September 14, as a Category v (SSH Scale) hurricane. By September 16 it had been weakened and finally dissipated subsequently moving inland over the east declension of Mexico.
Sustained winds in Jamaica were measured at 223 km/h, and greater across high ridges. The barometric pressure level was the lowest ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere at 888mb, 200km east-southeast of Jamaica. The barometric pressure when it hitting Jamaica was 960mb. The forwards speed was 31 km/h. The eye had a 56km diameter, just footling storm surge occurred in Jamaica. Average rainfall registered from 250mm to 550mm. Serious flooding due to storm surge and heavy rains was non a problem. Landslides occurred at high elevations where about of the rainfall was concentrated.
Past the time Hurricane Gilbert hit Mexico it had changed characteristics. In the Yucatan the storm surge reached five meters in height and rainfall averaged 400mm. By the time Gilbert struck the northern declension of United mexican states, the winds had increased to 290km/h and the storm surge had reached 6 meters.
1. JAMAICA
a. Affected Population and Impairment to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources
a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
Even though the loss of life was express to 45 reported deaths, 500,000 people lost their homes when approximately 280,000 houses-almost 55 percent of the housing stock-were damaged. Of these, xiv,000, or 5 percentage, were totally destroyed and 64,000 were seriously damaged.
b. Touch on the Economic system and Impairment to Productive Sectors
The Planning Plant of Jamaica estimated the total straight damage at US$956 meg. Nearly one-half was accounted for past losses from agronomics, tourism, and industry; thirty percent from housing, health, and education infrastructure; and 20 percent from economic infrastructure. The economic projections for 1988 had to be adjusted dramatically, to let for expected losses of The states$130 million in export earnings, and more Us$100 one thousand thousand in tourism earnings; therefore, instead of the expected v percent growth in Gross domestic product, a reject of 2 percent was projected. Other estimates were for increases in inflation (30 pct), regime public expenditures (U.s.a.$200 1000000), and public sector deficit (from 2.8 percent to 10.6 percent of Gross domestic product).
Figure 12-8 MAJOR TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE Basin
| REGION/COUNTRY | Yr/Month | CASUALTIES | PEOPLE AFFECTED | Harm THOUSANDS/U.s.$ | HURRICANE Proper name | SOURCE |
| Caribbean | ||||||
| Antigua | 1792 00 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1950 09 | 2 | 1,000 | Dog | OFDA | ||
| 1960 09 | 2 | Donna | OFDA | |||
| 1966 09 | OFDA | |||||
| Barbados | 1780 00 | 4,326 | Tomblin | |||
| 1786 00 | Tomblin | |||||
| 1831 00 | 2,000 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1955 09 | 57 | Janet | OFDA | |||
| Belize | 1931 09 | i,500 | 7,500 | OFDA | ||
| 1955 09 | 16 | 5,000 | Janet | OFDA | ||
| 1961 09 | 275 | 60,000 | OFDA | |||
| 1974 09 | lxx,000 | iv,000 | Carmen, Fifi | OFDA | ||
| 1978 09 | 5 | 6,000 | half dozen,000 | Greta | OFDA | |
| Republic of cuba | 1768 00 | 1,000 | Tomblin | |||
| 1844 00 | Tomblin | |||||
| 1846 00 | 500 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1926 ten | 600 | OFDA | ||||
| 1932 11 | 2,500 | OFDA | ||||
| 1935 09 | 35 | 500 | OFDA | |||
| 1948 09 | iii | 12,000 | OFDA | |||
| 1948 ten | 11 | 300 | 6,000 | OFDA | ||
| 1963 ten | 1,750 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1966 09 | 5 | 156,000 | 18,000 | Inez | OFDA | |
| 1968 10 | 0 | Gladys | OFDA | |||
| 1982 06 | 24 | 105,000 | 85,000 | OFDA | ||
| 1985 11 | 4 | 476,891 | Kate | OFDA | ||
| Dominica | 1806 00 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1834 00 | 200 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1963 09 | 2,600 | Edith | OFDA | |||
| 1979 08 | 40 | lxx,000 | 44,650 | David, Frederick | OFDA | |
| 1984 10 | ii | x,000 | 2,000 | Klaus | OFDA | |
| Dominican Republic | 1930 09 | 2.000 | 6,000 | 40,000 | OFDA | |
| 1963 10 | 400 | sixty,000 | Flora | OFDA | ||
| 1964 08 | 7 | ane,000 | Cleo | OFDA | ||
| 1966 09 | 74 | 7,000 | five,000 | Inez | OFDA | |
| 1979 08 | ane,400 | i,200,000 | 150.000 | David, Frederick | OFDA | |
| 1987 09 | 3 | 23,700 | Emily | OFDA | ||
| Grenada | 1963 09 | half dozen | Flora | OFDA | ||
| Republic of haiti | 1909 11 | 150 | OFDA | |||
| 1915 08 | 1,600 | OFDA | ||||
| 1935 10 | 2,150 | OFDA | ||||
| 1954 10 | 410 | 250,000 | Hazel | OFDA | ||
| 1963 10 | 5,000 | 180,000 | Flora | OFDA | ||
| 1964 08 | 100 | 80.000 | 10,000 | Cleo | OFDA | |
| 1966 09 | 480 | 67,000 | 20,000 | Inez | OFDA | |
| 1979 08 | 8 | 1,110 | David | OFDA | ||
| 1980 08 | 300 | 330,000 | xl,000 | Conflicting | OFDA | |
| 1988 09 | 54 | 870,000 | 91,286 | Gilbert | OFDA | |
| Jamaica | 1722 00 | 400 | Tomblin | |||
| 1780 00 | 300 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1786 00 | Tomblin | |||||
| 1880 00 | 30 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1903 08 | 65 | OFDA | ||||
| 1912 11 | 142 | OFDA | ||||
| 1917 09 | 57 | OFDA | ||||
| 1933 10 | x | OFDA | ||||
| 1935 x | 2,000 | OFDA | ||||
| 1944 08 | 32 | OFDA | ||||
| 1951 08 | 154 | 20,000 | 56.000 | Charlie | OFDA | |
| 1963 10 | eleven | 11,525 | Flora | OFDA | ||
| 1980 08 | half-dozen | 30,000 | 64,000 | Alien | OFDA | |
| 1985 11 | seven | 5,200 | Kate | OFDA | ||
| 1988 09 | 49 | 810,000 | 1,000.000 | Gilbert | OFDA | |
| St. Kitts/Nevis | 1772 00 | Tomblin | ||||
| 1792 00 | Tomblin | |||||
| 1928 09 | OFDA | |||||
| 1955 01 | OFDA | |||||
| Saint Lucia | 1960 07 | Abby | OFDA | |||
| 1963 09 | ten | 3,465 | Edith | OFDA | ||
| 1980 08 | 9 | 70,000 | 87,990 | Conflicting | OFDA | |
| St. Vincent | 1898 00 | 300 | Tomblin | |||
| 1955 09 | 122 | Janet | OFDA | |||
| 1980 08 | 20,000 | 16,300 | Conflicting | OFDA | ||
| 1987 09 | 200 | 5,300 | Emily | OFDA | ||
| Trinidad/Tobago | 1933 06 | xiii | three,000 | OFDA | ||
| 1963 09 | 24 | xxx,000 | Flora | OFDA | ||
| Cardinal AMERICA | ||||||
| Republic of costa rica | 1988 10 | 28 | 120,000 | Joan | OFDA | |
| El Salvador | 1969 09 | 2 | 4,600 | i,600 | Francelia | OFDA |
| Guatemala | 1969 09 | 269 | ten,200 | 15,000 | Francelia | OFDA |
| Honduras | 1969 09 | 8,000 | 19,000 | Francelia | OFDA | |
| 1974 09 | viii,000 | 600,000 | 540,000 | Fifi | OFDA | |
| 1978 09 | ii,000 | 1,000 | Greta | OFDA | ||
| Nicaragua | 1971 09 | 35 | 2,800 | 380 | Edith | OFDA |
| 1988 10 | 120 | 300,000 | 400,000 | Joan | OFDA | |
| Panama | 1988 10 | 7 | 7,000 | sixty,000 | Joan | OFDA |
| NORTH AMERICA (EXCLUDING THE Us) | ||||||
| Mexico | 1951 08 | 50 | OFDA | |||
| 1955 09 | 300 | Hilda | OFDA | |||
| 1955 09 | 500 | 40,000 | Janet | OFDA | ||
| 1960 x | 960 | OFDA | ||||
| 1961 eleven | 436 | Tara | OFDA | |||
| 1966 10 | fourteen | eighty,000 | 24,000 | Inez | OFDA | |
| 1967 08 | 77 | 271,000 | 184,000 | Katrina, Beulah | OFDA | |
| 1975 10 | 29 | Olivia | OFDA | |||
| 1976 10 | 600 | 175,000 | 100,000 | Liza | OFDA | |
| 1977 09 | 10 | 50,000 | Anita | OFDA | ||
| 1982 09 | 225 | l,000 | 30,000 | Paul | OFDA | |
| 1983 10 | 135 | Tico | OFDA | |||
| 1988 09 | 240 | 100,000 | Gilbert | OFDA | ||
Sources: Tomblin, J. "Natural Disasters in the Caribbean: A Review of Hazards and Vulnerability," in Caribbean Disaster Preparedness Seminar, St. Lucia, June, 1979 (Washington, D.C.: OFDA/USAID, 1979); and Office of Foreign Disaster Aid, U.S. Agency for International Development (OFDA/USAID). Disaster History: Significant Data on Major Disasters Worldwide, 1900-Present. July, 1989. (Washington, DC.- OFDA/USAID. 1089).
As expected, the economic activity most afflicted was agriculture, with the total destruction of banana and broiler product and of more than than fifty pct of the coffee and coconut crops. Capital losses to the sector were estimated at J$0.seven billion. According to some calculations, the loss of revenue through 1992 will be US$214 million.
Other productive sectors were also affected seriously. Manufacturing suffered J$600 million (in 1989 dollars) in losses, mainly from a pass up of 12 pct in its exports. Tourism lost U.s.$ninety 1000000 in foreign exchange, with five percent fewer visitor arrivals in the 3rd quarter of 1988 than during the aforementioned time menstruation in 1987. Loss of electricity decreased bauxite product past 14.2 percent for that quarter compared to the third quarter of the previous year, and alumina exports declined past 21 per centum.
c. Damage to Natural Resource
The coastal resources of Jamaica suffered extensive damage from hurricane forces. It is estimated that 50 percent of the beaches were seriously eroded, with the northeast coast being the nigh affected. An estimated threescore percent of all the trees in the mangrove areas were lost, fifty per centum of the oyster culture was unsalvageable, and other non-measurable harm occurred to coral reefs and the water quality of the island (Bacon, 1989).
2. MEXICO
a. Affected Population and Damage to Social Sectors
b. Impact on the Economy and Damage to Productive Sectors
c. Damage to Natural Resources
a. Affected Population and Impairment to Social Sectors
The Government of Mexico reported that the hurricane caused 200 deaths and approximately 200,000 homeless. In the state of Nuevo Leon, where the Monterrey surface area suffered from extensive flooding, 100 people died and 30,000 housing units were destroyed.
b. Impact on the Economy and Impairment to Productive Sectors
The tourism industry suffered the greatest impairment.
The tourist areas of the country of Quintana Roo, for case, suffered United states$100 one thousand thousand in direct damage and lost an estimated US$xc million in revenues. The Inter-American Development Bank, after evaluating the damage to infrastructure in this sector, lent The states$41.5 million for reconstruction.
c. Impairment to Natural Resources
The impact beyond the Yucatan Peninsula in terms of damage to wildlife, beaches, and coral reefs was much higher than on the coasts of Jamaica. All-encompassing reduction in beaches and coral reefs was reported, and large numbers of birds lost their lives.
C. RISK Cess AND DISASTER MITIGATION
1. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED BY HURRICANES
ii. MITIGATING Confronting HURRICANE Gamble
ane. DETERMINING THE RISK POSED BY HURRICANES
The take a chance posed by hurricanes to a particular land is a role of the likelihood that a hurricane of a certain intensity volition strike it and of the vulnerability of the country to the impact of such a hurricane. Vulnerability is a complex concept, which has physical, social, economic and political dimensions. Information technology includes such things equally the ability of structures to withstand the forces of a hazardous event, the extent to which a customs possesses the ways to organize itself to prepare for and deal with emergencies, the extent to which a state's economy depends on a single production or service that is easily affected by the disaster, and the caste of centralization of public decision-making (Wilches-Chaux, 1989).
Population centers and economic activities in the region are highly vulnerable to disruption and damage from the effects of extreme weather. They are largely concentrated in coastal plains and depression-lying areas field of study to storm surges and landborne flooding. High demands placed on existing lifeline infrastructure, combined with inadequate funds for the expansion and maintenance of these vital systems, have increased their susceptibility to breakdowns. Uncontrolled growth in urban centers degrades the physical environment and its natural protective capabilities. Building sites safe from natural hazards, pollution, and accidents have get inaccessible to the urban poor, who are left to build their shelters on steep hillsides or in flood-prone areas (Bender, 1989). Agriculture, particularly the cultivation of bananas for export, is frequently practiced without the necessary conservation measures corresponding to the soil, slope, and rainfall characteristics of the area.
Communities, countries, or regions differ greatly in vulnerability, and hence in the effects they may suffer from hurricanes of similar forcefulness. The very size of a country is a disquisitional determinant of vulnerability: small-scale island nations tin can be affected over their entire area, and major infrastructure and economic activities may be bedridden by a unmarried event. Scarce resources that were earmarked for development projects take to be diverted to relief and reconstruction, setting back economic growth.
To assess futurity risks, planners must report historical trends and correlate them with probable future changes. The main cause of increasing vulnerability is the population movement to high-risk areas. Most cities in the West Indies are in low coastal zones threatened past storm surge (Tomblin, 1979), and they continue to grow.
The economical sectors about affected by hurricanes are agriculture and tourism. Together, these represent a major portion of the economy for the countries in the Caribbean. Particularly for island countries, agriculture is the most vulnerable activity (ECLAC/UNEP, 1979). Hurricanes have disastrous effects on banana crops in detail. During Hurricane Alien, in August of 1980, Saint Lucia suffered US$36.five meg in damage, with 97 percent of the banana plantations destroyed. In St. Vincent 95 percent, and in Dominica 75 pct, of the banana plantations were ruined (Earthscan No. 34a, 1983). Harm to the tourism manufacture is more difficult to quantify since it includes many other economically identifiable sectors such as transportation and hotel services.
Crop statistics rarely account for long-term losses. The increased salinity in the soil due to the storm surge tin have detrimental furnishings on production in subsequent years. For instance, Hurricane Fifi decreased production in Honduras by 20 percent the yr information technology occurred, simply in the post-obit yr production was down by l percent. How much of this reduction was due to the increase in salinity is unclear, but it is known that salt destroys vegetation slowly.
ii. MITIGATING AGAINST HURRICANE RISK
a. Reduction of Risk at the International Level
b. Reduction of Adventure at the National Level
c. Reduction of Hazard at the Local Level
In one case the risk posed by hurricanes is understood, specific mitigation measures can be taken to reduce the adventure to communities, infrastructure, and economic activities. Human being and economic losses can be greatly reduced through well-organized efforts to implement appropriate preventive measures, in public sensation and in issuing timely warnings. Thank you to these measures, countries in the region take experienced a drastic reduction in the number of deaths caused by hurricanes.
Mitigation measures are most cost-constructive when implemented as function of the original programme or construction of vulnerable structures. Typical examples are the awarding of edifice standards designed for hurricane-strength winds, the avoidance of areas that tin can be affected past storm surge or flooding, and the planting of windbreaks to protect wind-sensitive crops. Retrofitting buildings or other projects to make them hurricane-resistant is more plush and sometimes impossible. Once a project is located in a flood-prone surface area, it may not be feasible to move it to safer footing.
The overall record on mitigation of hurricane run a risk in the Caribbean and Central America is non very encouraging. Cases abound of new investments in the public or productive sectors that were exposed to pregnant adventure gamble because of inappropriate design or location, and fifty-fifty of projects that were rebuilt in the aforementioned way on the same site later having been destroyed a first fourth dimension. Other cases can exist cited of schools and hospitals funded with bilateral assistance that were built to blueprint standards suitable for the donor state merely incapable of resisting hurricane-strength winds prevalent in the recipient land.
The tourism sector in the Caribbean is notorious for its apparent disregard of the risk of hurricanes and associated hazards. A hotel complex built with bereft setback from the high-water mark not only risks beingness damaged by moving ridge action and storm surge, but interferes with the normal processes of beach formation and dune stabilization, thus reducing the effectiveness of a natural system of protection against wave action. After the first serious impairment is incurred the owners of the hotel will virtually probable decide to rebuild on the same site and invest in a seawall, rather than consider moving the structure to a recommended setback.
a. Reduction of Risk at the International Level
In the past iii decades the technological capacity to monitor hurricanes has improved dramatically, and along with it the casualty rate has declined. New technology permits the identification of a tropical low and on-time monitoring as the hurricane develops. The greatest advance has occurred in the Usa, merely developing countries do good greatly because of the effective warning mechanism. The computer models likewise generate vast quantities of data useful for planners in developing nations.
Reckoner models that approximate tracking, landfall, and potential harm were first implemented in 1968 by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). At this indicate in that location are five operational runway guidance models: Beta and Advection Model (BAM), Climatology and Persistance (CLIPER), a Statistical-dynamical model (NHC90), Quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) and the barotropic VICBAR. They vary in capacity and methodology and occasionally result in alien predictions, though fewer than formerly. The NHC evaluates incoming data on all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin and issues an official runway and intensity forecast consisting of centre positions and maximum ane-infinitesimal wind speeds for 0, 12, 24, 48, and 72 hours.
The NHC has likewise developed a hurricane surge model named Sea, Lake and Overland Surges (SLOSH) to simulate the furnishings of hurricanes as they approach country. Its predecessor SPLASH, used in the 1960s, was useful for modeling hurricane effects forth smooth coastlines, simply SLOSH adds to this a capability to guess flooding in inland areas. These results can exist used in planning evacuation routes.
A computerized model that assesses the long-term vulnerability of coastal areas to tropical cyclones has besides been developed. This model, the National Hurricane Center Risk Analysis Program (HURISK), uses historical information on 852 hurricanes since 1886. The file contains storm positions, maximum sustained winds, and central pressures (unavailable for early years) at vi-hour intervals. When the user provides a location and the radius of involvement, the model determines hurricane occurrences, dates, storm headings, maximum winds, and forward speeds. Vulnerability studies brainstorm when the median occurrence engagement, direction distribution, distribution of maximum winds, probability of at to the lowest degree ten number of hurricanes passing over n consecutive years, and gamma distribution of speeds are adamant. Planners can use these objective return period calculations to evaluate an otherwise subjective situation.
b. Reduction of Risk at the National Level
Ane of the near important steps a country can take to mitigate the impact of hurricanes is to comprise risk assessment and mitigation measure design into development planning. The pattern of basic mitigation measures begins with the compilation of all historical records of former hurricane activity in the country, to determine the frequency and severity of past occurrences. Reliable meteorological data for each event, ranging from technical studies to paper reports, should be gathered. With all the data in place, a study of (1) the distribution of occurrences for months of a year, (2) frequencies of wind strengths and management, (3) frequencies of storm surges of various heights along different coastal sections, and (4) frequencies of river flooding and their spatial distribution should be undertaken. The statistical analysis should provide quantitative support for planning strategies.
The design of mitigation measures should follow the statistical analysis and consider long-term effects. Both non-structural and structural mitigation measures should be considered, taking into account the difficulties of implementation.
Non-structural measures consist of policies and development practices that are designed to avert risk, such as land use guidelines, forecasting and alert, and public awareness and teaching. Much credit for the reduction of casualties from hurricanes in the Caribbean area should be given to the Pan Caribbean Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Project (PCDPPP), which has worked effectively with national governments on motivating the population to have preventive measures, such as strengthening roof necktie-downs, and on establishing forecasting and warning measures.
Structural mitigation measures include the evolution of building codes to control building design, methods, and materials. The structure of breakwaters, diversion channels, and storm surge gates and the institution of tree lines are a few examples of mitigation from a public works standpoint.
c. Reduction of Take a chance at the Local Level
The effectiveness of national emergency preparedness offices of countries in the region is often seriously limited considering of inadequate institutional support and a shortage of technical and fiscal resources. In the smaller Caribbean islands, these offices are mostly one-person operations, with the person in charge responsible for many other non-emergency matters. It would be unrealistic to expect them to be able to act effectively at the local level in cases of area-broad emergencies, such as those caused by hurricanes. Information technology is therefore essential to enhance the chapters of the population in small towns and villages to prepare for and reply to emergencies past their own means.
From 1986 through 1989, the OAS/Natural Hazards Project has worked with several Eastern Caribbean area countries to evaluate the vulnerability of small towns and villages to natural hazards, and train local disaster managers and community leaders in organizing risk assessments and mitigation in their communities. These activities have resulted in the preparation of a grooming transmission with accompanying video for apply past local leaders. This effort has focused on lifeline networks-transportation, communications, water, electricity, sanitation-and disquisitional facilities related to the welfare of the inhabitants, such equally hospitals and health centers, schools, law and fire stations, customs facilities, and emergency shelters.
The remainder of this chapter is dedicated to a summary overview of the process by which the leadership in a small-scale town or village can introduce effective adventure mitigation.
D. COPING WITH HURRICANES IN SMALL TOWNS AND VILLAGES
ane. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Critical Facilities
2. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption by Hurricane
iii. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation
iv. Establishing a Positive Working Relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Community
5. Developing an Understanding of the Full Risk to the Community
6. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy
The degree to which local communities tin survive damage and disruption from severe storms and hurricanes also depends to a big extent on how well the bones services and infrastructure, the common goods of the customs, stand up to the air current and rain accompanying these storms. Whereas individual families comport total responsibility for preparing their own shelter to withstand the effects of storms, they have a much more limited office in ensuring that their mutual services are safeguarded, yet ane that cannot be neglected.
Not-governmental agencies involved in low income housing construction and upgrading take developed practical and depression cost measures for increasing the resistance of self-congenital houses to hurricane force winds. Typical of efforts of this nature is the work performed by the Construction Resource and Evolution Centre (CRDC) in Jamaica, which produced educational materials and organized workshops on house and roof reconstruction post-obit Hurricane Gilbert.
The principal responsibleness for introducing an sensation and concern in the community regarding the risk posed by hurricanes to the common good rests with the community leadership and local-or district-disaster coordinator, if such a function exists. It involves a lengthy procedure of identifying the issues, mobilizing resources from inside the community and from outside, and building support for common action.
Such a process consists of six steps: (ane) making an inventory of lifeline networks and critical facilities; (2) learning the performance of these and their potential for disruption by a hurricane; (3) checking the vulnerability of the lifelines and critical facilities through field inspection and investigation; (4) establishing a positive working relationship with the agencies and companies that manage the infrastructure and services of the community; (5) developing an understanding of the total risk to the customs; (6) formulating and implementing a mitigation strategy.
1. Inventory of Lifeline Networks and Disquisitional Facilities
Lifeline networks and disquisitional facilities are those elements in the economic and social infrastructure that provide essential goods and services to the population in towns and villages. Their proper operation is a direct concern of the community, since disruption affects the entire population.
The customs leadership should gradually build upwardly an inventory of these elements by locating them in a showtime instance on a large-calibration map (i:v,000 or ane:2,500) of the community. The base maps can be obtained from the boondocks and country departments or physical planning offices. The road network should indicate the road hierarchy (highway, principal admission to settlement, local streets) and the location of bridges and other civil works such as major road cuts and retaining walls. Like treatment should be given to the electricity and telephone networks and the water arrangement. Residential areas and areas of economic activity should likewise be identified.
Various sources can be tapped to obtain this information. Water, electricity, and telecommunication companies can be called upon to draw their networks on the maps for the surface area in question. The local representative of the ministry of public works or physical planning office can assist with the identification of the road network and the location of public facilities housing important services.
ii. Learning the Operation of Lifelines and Facilities and Their Potential for Disruption by Hurricane
Community leaders should periodically organize brief sessions in which the engineers or managers responsible for the different lifelines and facilities tin explain the workings of their systems to selected residents who may exist involved in disaster preparedness and response. The maps that were prepared before should be helpful during these sessions, while at the same time particular details can be reviewed and updated. The focus of these sessions should exist:
- Identification of the different elements that make upwardly the system, their interaction, and their interdependency.- How the dissimilar elements part, what can become wrong, and what the normal repair and maintenance procedures are.
- How each of the elements of the system can be affected by the forces accompanying a hurricane.
- What the consequences of a hurricane could be for the functioning of the arrangement and for the users.
WHAT ARE THE LIFELINE NETWORKS:
Road network, with roads, bridges, route cuts and retaining walls, elevated roads, drainage works.
Water organization, with surface intakes, wells, pipelines, treatment plants, pumping stations, storage tanks or reservoirs, h2o mains, and distribution network.
Electricity organisation, with generating plant, transmission lines, substations, transformers, and distribution network.
Telecommunication, with footing station, exchanges, microwave manual towers, aerial and underground cables, and open up line distribution network.
Sanitation system, with collector network, handling institute and sewage fallout; public washrooms and toilet facilities; solid waste material collection and disposal.
WHAT ARE THE CRITICAL FACILITIES:
Hospitals, health centers, schools, churches.
Burn stations, police stations, community centers, shelters, and other public buildings that house vital functions that play a role in emergencies.
three. Checking the Vulnerability of the Lifelines and Facilities through Field Inspection and Investigation
The vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure elements will be adamant first of all by their location with respect to hazard-prone areas. Storm surges and wave activeness can inflict severe impairment in waterfront and low-lying coastal areas; heavy rains accompanying the hurricanes tin crusade flash flooding or riverine flooding along the river banks and in low-lying areas; rain can also cause state slippages and mudslides on steep slopes and unstable roadcuts; and structures in exposed areas such as ridges and bluffs are particularly vulnerable to wind damage.
Risk-prone areas should be systematically identified and located on the lifeline and critical facilities map, to show where lifeline networks and critical facilities may be especially vulnerable.
The next step consists of a visual inspection and observation of all important infrastructure elements and critical facilities. Details of location and structure that may affect vulnerability should be noted and recorded on a canvas, together with a brief description of the possible harm that may occur.
4. Establishing a Positive Working Human relationship with the Agencies and Companies that Manage the Infrastructure and Services of the Community
One time the community leadership has nerveless a off-white amount of information, a series of consultations should be organized with the engineers or managers responsible for each of the lifeline and disquisitional facilities of the settlement, or with their local representatives, and further elaboration of the information collected thus far should have place.
Such consultations provide an opportunity for the community leadership to acquire well-nigh the maintenance and emergency repair policies practiced in their settlements by the unlike agencies and utility companies, to become to know the officers responsible for carrying out emergency repairs, and to find out how to contact them nether normal circumstances as well as in emergencies.
Good contacts between bureau representatives and community leadership are of corking help in exploring the coincidence of interest between the residents on the one paw and the service agencies and companies on the other. Through effectively managed participation by the residents in such tasks as monitoring the land of repair of the infrastructure or keeping drains clear, the community tin can receive better services at a lower cost to the agencies responsible. The actual hiring of workers or minor firms from the settlement to execute some of the agencies' tasks should be encouraged wherever possible.
LEARNING FROM PAST DISASTERS
Very valuable data about the vulnerability of small towns and villages can be obtained by inquiring into the local hurricane damage history. This is done through interviews with older residents in the community, retired public works officials familiar with the expanse, and other informants; past searching in one-time newspapers, and documents; and other means that may be appropriate in the particular setting.
The information should be organized past upshot, and within each effect by infrastructure element that was affected. Damage that resulted from that particular bear on should be briefly described. An effort should be made to collect at least the following data:
a. The Event:
- appointment of occurrence
- duration
- areas afflicted
- measures of strength (wind speed, height of overflowing waters)
- other characteristics that distinguish the event from others
b. The particular Element that was afflicted:
- class and type of chemical element
- physical characteristics
- whatever information on what may have made the element vulnerable at that time-for example, poor state of repair or accumulated debris
c. The DAMAGE that was acquired:
- quantitative and qualitative description of straight physical damage
- description of indirect damage, such as loss of function, break of service, loss of Jobs
v. Developing an Understanding of the Total Risk to the Community
To be meaningful, the view of the risk posed by hurricanes to a settlement should include the perspective of the population and its economic activities. In such an integrated view, vulnerability is obviously more than than the sum of the technical deficiencies experienced past structures or equipment in the face of excessive natural forces. The traditional sectoral organization of the public system provides a poor basis for an integrated vulnerability assay, since it tends to overlook the dependency and interaction between unlike infrastructure systems, which are often major determinants of the vulnerability of a society.
The different pieces of data nerveless so far will have to exist put together to create an understanding of the total gamble to which the settlement tin can be bailiwick, and of the variations of this risk within the settlement according to the location and vulnerability of specific elements of the infrastructure. The following techniques accept proved helpful in this exercise.
- Creating a visual image
All the data collected before is compiled on the big-scale base map of the settlement, either directly on the same map, on acetate overlays, or a few unlike copies. The final number of maps depends on the calibration of the base of operations map and the complexity of the information.
INVOLVING THE COMMUNITY IN VULNERABILITY REDUCTION
In St. Kitts and Nevis, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry building of Public Works, and the Disaster Preparedness Office organized local residents to repair the schools with materials donated by USAID. The school children benefited from safer, more operable buildings, while the community as a whole benefited from having safer hurricane shelters, a function which school buildings across the island automatically acquire during the hurricane season.
EXAMPLES FOR Customs ACTION
Contributions that local communities can make to reducing the vulnerability of their basic services are typically non-structural, and are built around routine monitoring and maintenance. Some examples:
- Avoid throwing garbage, especially large objects such as tires, tree branches, and appliances, into gullies and rivers. These tend to accumulate near bridges and culverts, forming obstacles to normal h2o flow.
- Do non remove natural vegetation from river and gully banks, and from cut slopes, in lodge to avoid accelerated erosion of the banks.
- Proceed roadside drainage clear of silt and other objects; pay special attention to crossover culverts.
- Exercise not remove sand and stones from beaches.
- Keep overhanging branches away from electricity and telephone lines.
- Exercise non tamper with electricity/telephone poles; written report whatsoever visible signs of deterioration of the poles or their stays.
- Report any visible signs of deterioration to public buildings, paying special attending to roofs and windows.
- Do not interfere with water intakes; report excessive silting or obstructions.
The maps will highlight where chancy events can strike, who suffers the risks, what functions are threatened, where direct harm can be experienced, and what the level of hazard is.
- Creating impact scenarios
With the help of the maps, much can be learned about the risk to which the community is bailiwick by formulating realistic scenarios of the touch on of a hurricane on the settlement and simulating the consequences for population, lifelines, and critical facilities.
These scenarios can be reviewed with various groups in the community. Discussion of the different scenarios creates the perfect background against which to start thinking about what the community tin can practice to reduce the take a chance, which is later all the purpose of the exercise.
half dozen. Formulating a Mitigation Strategy
The formulation of a strategy to introduce advisable mitigation measures that reply to the community's priorities is the culmination of all the efforts expended on the vulnerability analysis and risk assessment.
Information technology is of import that the customs leadership focus on identifying realistic mitigation measures and proposing a uncomplicated implementation strategy. The common pitfall of identifying measures that require substantial funding should be avoided by concentrating on non-structural measures. Typical of the measures that should be emphasized are those that tin be integrated into routine maintenance or upgrading of infrastructure; the avoidance of environmental deposition that tin can subtract the natural protective capacity of resources such as sand dunes, mangroves, and other natural vegetative coverage; and prevention by means of proper planning and blueprint of new investments.
It is also important to found the role of the different governmental levels and agencies in the country in the implementation of a mitigation strategy. The range of actions under the command of a small community is obviously quite limited, and depends on the caste of autonomy of the local government, the level of resources information technology controls, and the expertise it is able to mobilize.
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